In week 17 (April 26–May 2, 2021), a decline in epidemiological indicators was observed, with a 20% drop in the incidence rate; however, the epidemic remains at a high level, higher than that observed one week before the lifting of the second lockdown. While admissions to critical care units have also been declining since that week, pressure on hospitals remains significant. Vaccination coverage among fully vaccinated individuals was on the rise, reaching nearly 11% of the population. In week 16, slightly more than half of those not yet vaccinated indicated they wanted to get vaccinated as soon as possible. In this context, maintaining a high level of adherence to individual preventive measures and the rapid progress of vaccination are essential to allow for an upcoming easing of collective measures, keep the observed downward trend on track, and preserve hospital capacity.

A decline underway for the past 3 weeks

Nationally, 150,275 new cases were confirmed, representing an average of approximately 21,500 cases per day. The incidence rate, adjusted to account for the Saturday holiday in Week 17, was decreasing (241 per 100,000 inhabitants, a 20% decrease compared to Week 16) for the third consecutive week. This decrease was observed across all age groups but was less pronounced among those aged 0–14 (-6%). The adjusted testing rate (3,266 per 100,000 inhabitants) increased (+7%) after three weeks of decline. This increase was observed among those aged 0–14 (+131%), while a stabilizing trend was observed in the other age groups.

Incidence rates were decreasing across all metropolitan regions compared to week 16. This decrease ranged from -10% in Corsica to -28% in Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur. The testing rate increased in most regions. The positivity rate decreased across all metropolitan regions.

Number of hospitalized patients remains high

The number of reported new hospitalizations of COVID-19 patients decreased in Week 17 (-13%), for the third consecutive week. The number of reported new admissions of COVID-19 patients to critical care units in Week 17 decreased (2,440 vs. 2,971, or -18%) following the stabilization observed the previous week. The number of people currently hospitalized remained high, with 28,487 people hospitalized as of May 4 (vs. 30,341 on April 27, a decrease of 6%), including 5,520 patients in critical care (vs. 5,959, a decrease of 7%).

Hospitalization rates were stable or declining in most regions. Admission rates to critical care units were declining across all regions, except in Nouvelle-Aquitaine, where the observed increase was, however, more moderate than that of the previous week.

With 13.2% of the population seropositive for SARS-CoV-2 in February 2021, vaccination remains essential

Since March 2020, Santé publique France, in collaboration with the National Reference Center (CNR) for Respiratory Viruses (including influenza) at the Pasteur Institute, has been conducting seroprevalence surveys in the general population, repeated at various points during the COVID-19 epidemic. A new estimate of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in France conducted in February 2021 (week 6) following the epidemic wave of the last quarter of 2020 indicates that the proportion of people seropositive for SARS-CoV-2 is estimated at 13.2%. In metropolitan France, in week 6 of 2021, Île-de-France remains the most affected region with a seroprevalence of 20.6%, followed by Bourgogne-Franche-Comté (18.7%) and Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur (13.9%), two regions where viral circulation was particularly active in late 2020.

The results of the first three surveys conducted from March to May 2020 had revealed an increase in national seroprevalence from 0.3% to 4.9% during the first wave of the epidemic. After more than a year of viral spread, these estimates confirm that, even with the expected increase in natural immunity during the epidemic wave that has been unfolding since March 2021, only mass vaccination would allow for the rapid achievement of herd immunity capable of significantly influencing the dynamics of the epidemic and preventing the saturation of hospital services.

Adherence to containment measures is high, a crucial factor in combating the epidemic

As of May 4, 2021:

• 16,470,369 people have received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine and 7,306,862 people are fully vaccinated, representing 24.5% and 10.9% of the population in France, respectively

• the estimated vaccination coverage among the adult population (aged 18 and older) was 31.3% for at least one dose and 13.9% for full vaccination

The CoviPrev survey (Wave 23, April 21–23, 2021) reveals an overall increase in consistent adherence to measures related to social interaction. Consistent mask-wearing in public remains the most widely adopted measure (83%).

More than half of unvaccinated respondents (56%) said they were certain or likely to get vaccinated against COVID-19. This percentage has remained stable since February. Older adults are more likely to want to get vaccinated (63%). The proportion of young people aged 18–24 intending to get vaccinated rose sharply between March (36%) and April (55%). Indicators of mental health issues remain stable at a high level (22% for depressive and anxious states).

Adherence to individual preventive measures and the rapid progress of vaccination remain essential to enable an upcoming easing of public health measures, keep the observed trend downward, and preserve hospital capacity. Anyone with symptoms suggestive of COVID-19 should immediately self-isolate and get tested as soon as possible. The use of digital tools (TousAntiCovid) is recommended to strengthen contact tracing and rapid isolation measures.