COVID-19 Epidemiological Update for January 21, 2021. High levels of viral transmission call for essential public cooperation

CP_pe_covid_210121.pdf

Published on 22 January 2021

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Santé publique France
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Stéphanie Champion: 01 41 79 67 48
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Camille Le Hyaric: 01 41 79 68 64

Published weekly, the epidemiological update on COVID-19 surveillance provides a detailed analysis of the indicators established by Santé publique France and its network of partners to track the progression of the epidemic and guide public policy decisions. In Week 02 (January 11–17, 2021), the virus continues to circulate at a high level, with an average of 18,364 confirmed cases per day. The incidence rate is stabilizing at the national level. However, a 12% increase in this rate is observed among people aged 75 and older. Regionally, a slight improvement in this rate is observed in the eastern regions, while it is trending upward in four regions previously less affected: Brittany, New Aquitaine, Occitanie, and Corsica. Given the high levels of viral circulation across the country and the emergence of new variants, the vaccination rollout must continue to accelerate, and the public must remain fully committed to adopting preventive measures and limiting social contacts.

The level of viral circulation remains high

With high levels of viral circulation, Week 02 is marked by the continued intensity of the epidemic. 1,928,414 people were tested, and 128,551 tested positive for SARS-CoV-2.

This represents an average of 18,364 new confirmed cases per day (+1% compared to Week 01). Virological indicators showed a stabilization in the incidence rate (192 per 100,000 inhabitants, +1%) and the testing rate (2,873 per 100,000 inhabitants, -2%), and thus a stabilization in the positivity rate (6.7%, +0.2 percentage points). However, disparities were observed across age groups: people aged 75 and older were the most affected by SARS-CoV-2, with an incidence rate of 259 per 100,000 inhabitants, an increase compared to the previous week (+12%).

In social and medical-social institutions (ESMS), the number of confirmed cases rose between weeks 53 and 01, increasing from 443 reports to 768 after several weeks of stability. This increase may be linked to more frequent social interactions during the end-of-year period.

Mortality indicators continue to rise

The weekly number of deaths, including those occurring in hospitals and medical-social facilities (deaths at home not included), increased to 2,601 in week 01 compared to 2,360 in week 53 (+10.2%, consolidated data).

More than 71,000 deaths (in hospitals and long-term care facilities) were recorded between March 1, 2020, and January 19, 2021. From week 40 (September 28 to October 4, 2020) through week 53, the number of deaths from all causes and across all age groups was significantly higher than expected. In week 53, excess mortality was +14%. Due to delays in the transmission of death certificates by civil registry offices, the estimate of excess deaths for week 01 will be refined next week. However, it is noted that the number of deaths increased again in week 53 and week 01.

Disparate trends across regions

In Week 02, several metropolitan regions showed concerning trends in epidemiological indicators. Since Week 51, the incidence rate as well as hospitalization and ICU admission rates have risen in Occitanie, Brittany, Nouvelle-Aquitaine, and Corsica—regions that had previously been less affected.

Conversely, since Week 02, a decrease in incidence rates has been observed in the hardest-hit regions: in Grand Est (-15%), in Bourgogne-Franche-Comté (-15%), and to a lesser extent in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes (-8%). It should be noted that the most affected departments in these regions were targeted as early as January 2 with early curfews.

Curfew: How Can We Assess Its Impact Today?

Since January 2, an early curfew (6 p.m. to 6 a.m.) has been in effect in 15 metropolitan departments; this measure was extended to 10 additional departments starting January 10 and 12, and then to the remaining 61 metropolitan departments on January 16.

To measure the impact of the stricter curfew measures, Santé publique France bases its analysis on changes in the incidence rate across departments according to the date the measure was implemented.

According to the initial results published in the epidemiological update of January 21, in week 02, a decrease in the incidence rate of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases was observed in the 15 departments placed under an early curfew on January 2. The curfew and the cautious behavior of the population, raised awareness through local communication campaigns, may have contributed to the improvement in the epidemiological situation.

For departments where the stricter curfew was implemented later, it is still too early to observe the effect of these early curfews.

Prevention Measures and Vaccination: Everyone’s Cooperation Is Crucial

High viral circulation and the emergence of new, more contagious variants call for greater adherence to prevention measures and physical distancing, which are the primary means of curbing the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and reducing its impact on the healthcare system and mortality rates.

The intensified vaccination campaign—which, since January 18, has been open to people aged 75 and older and those with underlying conditions that put them at very high risk for COVID-19, in addition to nursing home residents and healthcare workers over 50—continues. Data provided by the Regional Health Agencies (ARS), pending the launch of the Vaccin Covid information system for vaccination coverage indicators, show that 823,567 people had been vaccinated against COVID-19 in France as of January 21, 2021.

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