The outbreak continues among young people and the elderly

With 70,458 confirmed cases in week 39, the epidemic continues to spread. The positivity rate for SARS-CoV-2 among symptomatic patients (SI-DEP) rose from 7.8% in week 38 to 13.4% in week 39 (+6.1 percentage points). At the same time, the number of hospitalizations (4,204 in week 39 vs. 3,657 in week 38) and the number of ICU admissions increased by +15% and +31%, respectively.

The number of SOS Médecins calls reported and the number of emergency room visits for suspected COVID-19 decreased by 27% and 23%, respectively. The decline in certain monitoring indicators, which could be explained by variations in healthcare utilization and testing over the past few weeks, should be interpreted with great caution given the longer data consolidation times and the fact that other indicators are simultaneously rising.

In week 39, young adults (ages 15–44) remained the group most affected by SARS-CoV-2 (incidence of 172 per 100,000 population), followed by those aged 45–64. Furthermore, since mid-August, the number of cases has increased 4.3-fold among people aged 75 and older and 3.4-fold among those aged 65 to 74.
In mainland France, the weekly number of new intensive care admissions continues to rise exponentially. The highest intensive care admission rates were observed in Île-de-France (2.22) and Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur (1.82 per 100,000 inhabitants).
If the epidemic continues at this rate, it is estimated that the weekly number of new patients admitted to the hospital will double in 25 days and that the weekly number of new patients admitted to intensive care will double in 16 days.

Preventive measures: collective and individual compliance remains essential

The results of the 15th wave of the CoviPrev study, conducted from September 21 to 23, show that maintaining compliance with all preventive measures over the long term is difficult and that compliance varies by age group.

Between waves 14 and 15, the consistent adoption of preventive measures remained stable, with the exception of “wearing a mask in public” and “greeting others without shaking hands or hugging,” which increased by 5 and 4 percentage points, respectively. Wearing masks in public has been steadily increasing since the end of lockdown, rising from 46.2% in wave 7 to 73.9% in wave 15.

Preventive measures related to social interaction, however, are on the decline:

• Compliance with the measure “avoid festive gatherings” decreased by 4 points between Wave 14 and Wave 15 (52.7% versus 48.5%).

• Systematic adherence to the measure “avoid face-to-face gatherings and meetings” has dropped sharply since the end of lockdown (by nearly 40 percentage points): 71.9% in Wave 7 and 32.3% in Wave 15.

• People aged 65 and older, who are particularly at risk of developing a severe form of COVID-19, are, however, following the recommended preventive measures more consistently. As of late September, 59% of them consistently maintained a distance of at least one meter, and 39% consistently avoided gatherings and in-person meetings.