COVID-19 Epidemiological Update for September 17: Significant Increase in All Indicators, a Call for Greater Vigilance

CP_pe_covid_170920.pdf

Published on 18 September 2020

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Santé publique France
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Stéphanie Champion: 01 41 79 67 48
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Camille Le Hyaric: 01 41 79 68 64

Published weekly, the epidemiological update on COVID-19 surveillance provides a detailed analysis of the various indicators established by Santé publique France and its partners to track the progression of the epidemic and guide public policy decisions. The epidemiological update of September 17 reveals that all indicators tracking the epidemic are on the rise, and for the first time since the lifting of lockdown measures, an increase in COVID-19 deaths has been observed. These signs point to a clear deterioration of the situation both in the community and in hospitals. Initial seroprevalence estimates show that the level of herd immunity is too low to control viral transmission. The utmost vigilance remains essential, particularly among populations most at risk of complications, and preventive measures must be adopted more systematically by the entire population.

Viral circulation is on the rise, and the situation is deteriorating significantly

In Week 37, all indicators are on the rise. In urban areas, the number of SOS Médecin calls for suspected COVID-19 cases increased by 74% compared to Week 36 (7,262 calls in Week 37 versus 4,185 in Week 36). New hospitalizations and ICU admissions rose by 45% (2,464 new hospitalizations vs. 1,704) and 48% (427 new ICU admissions vs. 288), respectively.

For the first time, the number of SARS-CoV-2-related deaths, including those occurring in hospitals and long-term care facilities, increased from 129 in week 36 to 265 in week 37. Given the dynamics of the epidemic, this rise in hospital indicators was expected. Severe cases leading to hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and deaths occur with a lag of about two weeks after the onset of the disease. These increases underscore the need to protect those most at risk of complications.

Point of concern: virus circulation is intensifying among those aged 75 and older

While young adults (ages 20 to 30) remain the group most affected by SARS-CoV-2 at present, the virus has been spreading in recent weeks among those aged 75 and older. The incidence rate in this age group, which is susceptible to developing the most severe forms of the disease, has been rising for several weeks: +44% in week 35, +58% in week 36, and +45% in week 37 (45 per 100,000 inhabitants in week 37).

Clusters in nursing homes are also rising sharply: 68 clusters in week 37 versus 37 the previous week, prompting a call for heightened vigilance. The intensifying spread of the virus among the elderly raises concerns about continued hospitalizations and deaths in the coming weeks.

Prevention is more necessary than ever

Estimates from seroprevalence surveys, conducted in collaboration with the Pasteur Institute’s National Reference Center (CNR) for Respiratory Infection Viruses (including influenza), show that in week 20 (May 11–17), nearly 5% of the population had been exposed to the virus, and only 3.3% of the population had developed neutralizing antibodies. These proportions are far from providing herd immunity capable of controlling viral circulation. To protect yourself from the virus today, it is essential that everyone adopt all preventive measures. Protecting yourself also means protecting others.

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Find:

Key figures on the COVID-19 pandemic and its progression in France and around the world, along with a map showing the vulnerability of departments: here
Daily updated indicators on the Géodes mapping observatory.