COVID-19 Epidemiological Update, September 2, 2021: Contrasting situations in mainland France and the overseas territories call for continued vigilance as the school year begins
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In week 34 (August 23–29, 2021), the decline in SARS-CoV-2 transmission continued, accompanied this week by a decrease in hospital and intensive care admissions, although there are regional disparities. The situation remains particularly critical in Martinique and Guadeloupe, and of concern in French Guiana.
Nationwide, the testing rate remained very high. Incidence rates, while still high, were declining across all age groups, except among children aged 0–9 (stable) and those aged 3–5 (slight increase). The number of contacts reported by cases remained low, indicating that contact tracing was still incomplete. In France, as of August 31, 2021, 72.3% of the population had received at least one dose of the vaccine and 66.0% were fully vaccinated. With the start of the school year and the resumption of professional activities, vaccinating all eligible individuals is essential and must be combined with other preventive measures, particularly adherence to barrier measures, limiting high-risk contacts, and self-isolation in the event of symptoms, a confirmed infection, or contact with a confirmed case. The combination of these various measures remains necessary to stabilize the current epidemic trend and help protect the hospital system.
Decline in the incidence rate, which remains at high levels
Nationally, an average of 17,135 cases were diagnosed per day in week 34; the incidence rate was 179 per 100,000 inhabitants, a decrease of 18%. The decrease in the incidence rate was observed in all age groups, except for those aged 0–9, among whom it remained stable (130 per 100,000 inhabitants). A slight increase was observed among 3- to 5-year-olds (107, +6%). The highest rates were observed in the 20-29 age group (306, -24%), the 30-39 age group (271, -17%), and the 10-19 age group (242, -19%).
Testing rates were decreasing among those under 60 and stable or slightly increasing among those 60 and older. The highest rates were observed among those aged 20–29 (14,487 per 100,000, -11%) and 30–39 (11,893, -10%).
In mainland France, incidence rates, although declining, remained highest in Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur (441 per 100,000, -17%), Occitanie (230, -28%), and Corsica (222, -36%).
How is the virus spreading among children by school age group?
In Week 34, among the 349,920 people under 18 tested for SARS-CoV-2 (vs. 405,797 in Week 33, a decrease of 14%), a total of 25,637 new cases were reported (vs. 28,689 in Week 33, a decrease of 11%). Children aged 0–17 accounted for 21% of all new cases observed in the general population.
Children aged 0–2 accounted for 6% of new cases among those under 18, those aged 3–5 for 9.5%, those aged 6–10 for 31%, those aged 11–14 for 30%, and those aged 15–17 for 23.5%. The incidence rate continued to rise among 3- to 5-year-olds (107 per 100,000, or +6%), decreased slightly among 0- to 2-year-olds (69, a decrease of 4%) and among 6- to 10-year-olds (194, a decrease of 2%), and more sharply among 11- to 14-year-olds (227, a decrease of 16%) and 15- to 17-year-olds (244, a decrease of 20%). The screening rate increased slightly among 3- to 5-year-olds (790 per 100,000, or +3%) and decreased in the other age groups: 0- to 2-year-olds (596, or -3%), 6- to 10-year-olds (1,558, or -13%), 11–14-year-olds (3,666, or -16%) and 15–17-year-olds (5,300, or -14%).
Decline in new hospitalizations and critical care admissions after six weeks of increases
In hospitals, indicators were declining after six weeks of increases. In week 34, 5,321 new hospitalizations (-14% vs. +18% in week 33) and 1,183 new critical care admissions (-12% vs. +18% in week 33) were recorded. Nevertheless, hospital capacity remained high, with 11,181 COVID-19 patients currently hospitalized in Week 34 (+0.5%), including 2,305 in critical care units (+3%). COVID-19-related deaths (in hospitals and long-term care facilities) were on the decline (724, -11%), a trend to be confirmed as data is consolidated.
Since Thursday, September 2, new hospital indicators have been available on the Géodes platform and the data.gouv website. They cover the weekly number of hospital admissions, by region and by 10-year age group (source: SIVIC), calculated by date of hospital admission. A historical record dating back to March 2020 is also available and will be updated every Thursday as data for the new week becomes available.
First positive effects observed from containment measures in the Overseas Territories
In the overseas territories, during week 34, a critical situation persists in Guadeloupe and Martinique. Incidence rates, although declining again this week, remained very high in Guadeloupe (1,071/100,000, -44%) and Martinique (646, -28%), with hospitals still under significant strain. Hospital admissions to intensive care for COVID-19 remained high in Week 34, with 57 new admissions in Guadeloupe (vs. 66 in Week 33) and 84 in Martinique (vs. 86 in Week 33). A very significant excess mortality across all causes and age groups has continued to be observed since Week 30 in these two territories. In Week 33, it reached +126% compared to the usual mortality rate in Guadeloupe (+78 deaths vs. +83 deaths in Week 32), and +129% in Martinique (+86 deaths vs. +113 deaths in Week 32). In French Guiana, the incidence rate (456, +4%) and hospital indicators remain at high levels.
Starting in mid-July, various containment measures were implemented in Martinique, Guadeloupe, French Guiana, and Réunion: travel restricted to essential reasons, curfews, and/or lockdowns. The effect of a measure on the trend of epidemiological indicators is observable at least 7 to 10 days after its implementation; this means that we can measure the impact of those implemented before week 33 without being able to determine their contribution relative to that of other factors.
In Guadeloupe, where measures were implemented between weeks 30 and 32, the decrease in the incidence rate observed during week 33 was confirmed in week 34.
In Martinique, following the implementation of measures between weeks 28 and 30, a slowdown in the rise of the incidence rate was observed in week 31, followed by a decline in week 32 that accelerated in weeks 33 and 34.
In French Guiana (Cayenne and Savanes), stricter curfew measures were implemented in Week 30, followed by additional measures in Weeks 32–33. A slowdown in the rise of the incidence rate was observed in Weeks 33 and 34.
In Réunion, measures were implemented in S28 and S30. The decline in the incidence rate that began in S32 continued in S33 and S34.
A beneficial effect of the containment measures taken in Guadeloupe, Martinique, and Réunion is observed, though it is not possible to determine the specific contribution of each measure. Signs of a slowdown are observed in French Guiana but need to be confirmed in the coming days.
Vaccination coverage continues to increase in the general population and among healthcare workers
On August 31, the estimated vaccination coverage in France based on Vaccin Covid was 72.3% for at least one dose and 66.0% for full vaccination. Among those aged 12 and older, 48,508,957 had received at least one dose (83.9%) and 44,297,145 (76.7%) were fully vaccinated. Vaccination coverage for at least one dose was 92.3% for residents in nursing homes or long-term care facilities (89.4% for full vaccination).
Among healthcare workers, vaccination coverage increased: vaccination coverage with at least one dose was 87.4% for professionals in nursing homes or long-term care facilities vs. 85.9% on August 24, 2021 (80.7% for full vaccination vs. 76.5%) and 92.9% for private practitioners vs. 92.0% (89.6% for full vaccination vs. 87.7%). For salaried healthcare workers in healthcare facilities, vaccination coverage with at least one dose was estimated at 87.0% on August 31 vs. 85.6% on August 24 (81.3% for full vaccination vs. 77.6%).
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